
Tiny Nick’s Gambling Picks 11/14
By Marcus Chen
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Ryan Jeffers has declined the 1-year, $23.15 million qualifying offer he received from the Twins last week, as first reported by Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune.
However, earlier this week, Twins general manager Jeremy Zoll told reporters at the GM meetings in Las Vegas that they are still engaged with Jeffers on a long-term deal. Whether that comes to fruition remains to be seen. Still, if it doesn’t, the Twins would have about $23.15 million they planned to spend on Jeffers to allocate elsewhere on the payroll.
So, how could they spend that $23.15 million now? It could go many different ways. They could include it in a potential long-term deal with Jeffers, or a long-term extension for someone like Luke Keaschall. However, let’s put it in the context of free agency and 2027 only.
That $23.15 million, reserved for Jeffers, could land the Twins two decent relievers to bolster their bullpen.
The free-agent bullpen market has already seen a couple of signings that can serve as benchmarks for what other deals might look like in the coming weeks. The first signing was former Twins reliever Emilio Pagan with the Detroit Tigers, on a 1-year, $11 million deal. The other was Evan Phillips, who signed a 3-year, $35 million deal with the Atlanta Braves on Thursday.
Phillips’ contract will pay him $11 million in 2027 and $13 million in 2028 and 2029. Both pitchers entered the off-season as B-tier relievers in this market, and since they are both set to earn an $11 million AAV in 2027, that provides an easy path for what the Twins could do with the $23.5 million left over from Jeffers’ QO.
With the off-season getting underway, there should still be plenty of relievers within the $11 million AAV range the Twins could sign.
Alex Vesia is one name that stands out to bolster their lefty relief depth.
Even though he is likely seeking a multi-year deal, Vesia will likely land within the $11 million AAV range. Vesia never earned more than $3.55 million from the Dodgers in his arbitration-eligible seasons. Even with his career year in 2026, it would be surprising if he earned an AAV above $12 million, given the precedent set by other relievers who have already signed out of the B-tier range.
If the Twins can lock Vesia into a multi-year deal with an AAV not exceeding $12 million, they should take advantage of it. And if that hypothetical becomes reality, it would still leave them with another $11.15 million to spend on the open market, which would best be used to add another strong reliever to the bullpen mix.
Rasiel Iglesias comes to mind for this option, but since he earned $16 million on a one-year deal with the Braves last year, it’s unlikely he would want to take a $5 million pay cut, especially after he just made his first All-Star team in 2026. Iglesias would still be worth pursuing for the Twins, but his price range would have to be outside of this hypothetical of splitting $23.15 million to sign to relievers.
Two other names that seem more realistic at $11 million on one-year deals, or even less, are Bryan Abreu and Jonathan Loáisiga.
The Twins have already been linked to Abreu since this past summer’s trade deadline, when a deal was in place to send Trevor Larnach to the Houston Astros for Abreu until Astros owner Jim Crane nixed it. Even if the Twins didn’t get their guy at the trade deadline, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’ve given up on pursuing Abreu.
Fortunately for them, he still fits within the $11 million price range, because he never earned more than $5.8 million in arbitration-eligible seasons. He’s coming off a season that started poorly but finished strong, and a one-year ‘prove it’ deal could be what is offered in his market.
Loáisiga, on the other hand, is coming off a career year in appearances (67) and ERA (2.42). This off-season is his chance to finally lock in a higher payday for 2027 or even a multi-year deal. However, he’s not a strikeout-prone pitcher, with a strikeout rate of 18.4% last year. Given Loáisiga’s track record as a more pitch-to-contact pitcher, he’s also unlikely to exceed an AAV of $11 million in 2027.
There’s no way to truly know how the Twins could use the $23.15 million set aside for Jeffers’ qualifying offer until they start signing free agents. Still, knowing they have at least that amount to spend this off-season does give them time to weigh hypotheticals like these.
Zoll said the bullpen was the number one area needing improvement this off-season at the Twins’ end-of-season presser. So if they can’t sign Jeffers to a long-term deal, the money they had for him should go toward the reliever market, if not him.
Born and raised in Burnsville, Theo Tollefson covers the Twins for Zone Coverage. He's also a full-time journalist and has previously written for the Rochester Post Bulletin. Growing up, Theo idolized the M&M (Mauer and Morneau) Boys and has not missed attending a Twins game as a fan since 2004.
Coon Rapids, Minnesota
Sports
Friday, November 13, 2026
4 min